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![]() After spending a couple of months with our stomachs in knots from worry and with the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) having stayed persistently above 50, we thought it might be time to consider the bull case. It is clear that a "Black Swan" event has occurred in our financial markets. The steady-and-steep drop of the overall market and, most importantly, our largest financial institutions could imply the worst is yet to come. Technically, the market keeps hitting lower highs and lower lows -- not a pretty picture. Employment, home prices, consumption and almost every other fundamental driver of our economy is expected to continue to deteriorate. The debt market is frozen. The problems are global in scope. The negative sentiment regarding the economy and the stock market is nearly universal. We recently hit an all-time low in U.S. consumer confidence (as measured from 1967 forward). The measure was 38% in October, down from 61% in September. When everyone begins to believe the same thing and sees the world in the same way, we think it is worth considering other perspectives because the consensus is often behind the curve. Although it seems almost impossible, consider the following reasons why the market could rally big near term. |
Looking into June, the market should begin refocusing on upcoming earnings reports for evidence the economy is gaining momentum.
Watching the Treasury's Actions
In the short-term, the government's bond auction is likely to be a key driver of stocks.
Treasury Auction Boosts Market
The Treasury's auction of two-year notes brought an upside surprise which should alleviate fears of a lack of demand for U.S. paper.
Credit Markets Point to Upturn
The credit market, a reliable indicator of equity direction, suggests we will break out of the SPX's trading range to the upside.
The market seems to be saying that a 30% move up from the lows is ahead of the real economy and the market needs to allow the economy to catch up.



