Nine Winning Trades For 2009
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Trade #1: The Obama
$1 Trillion Infrastructure SpendThis is certainly the most-telegraphed and anticipated trade idea for 2009. As a result, it may carry some risk as expectations get ahead of the reality of enacting massive new spending programs as tax receipts plummet. Generally, many infrastructure companies have bounced significantly off their lows. We would look to take advantage of pullbacks.
In any event, the passage of new infrastructure programs should benefit a wide array of companies including Caterpillar (CAT), Cummings (CMI), Fluor Corp. (FLR), Foster Wheeler (FWLT) , Granite Construction (GVA), Walter Industries (WLT), International Business Machines Corp. (IBM), Cisco (CSCO), etc. Our favorite infrastructure trade play is Shaw Group Inc. (SGR). SGR is an engineering, technology and construction company that serves the oil industry, utilities and government agencies. Based on current expectations, the company is trading at a 7 P/E on next year's earnings estimate.
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Looking into June, the market should begin refocusing on upcoming earnings reports for evidence the economy is gaining momentum.
Watching the Treasury's Actions
In the short-term, the government's bond auction is likely to be a key driver of stocks.
Treasury Auction Boosts Market
The Treasury's auction of two-year notes brought an upside surprise which should alleviate fears of a lack of demand for U.S. paper.
Credit Markets Point to Upturn
The credit market, a reliable indicator of equity direction, suggests we will break out of the SPX's trading range to the upside.
The market seems to be saying that a 30% move up from the lows is ahead of the real economy and the market needs to allow the economy to catch up.
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