Worst and Best Trades From 2008
Houghton and Atkeson, January 1, 2009
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1. U.S. Government Letting Lehman Brothers Fail
Having started down the bailout road with Bear Stearns, Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE), the Lehman Brothers (LEHMQ) surprise policy reverse was devastating to the credit markets, and is often cited as a significant catalyst for the stock market crash in October and November. It also triggered the collapse of AIG (AIG), costing taxpayers $130 billion-plus and rising.
Next: Economic World Decoupling
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More By This Expert
Looking into June, the market should begin refocusing on upcoming earnings reports for evidence the economy is gaining momentum.
Watching the Treasury's Actions
In the short-term, the government's bond auction is likely to be a key driver of stocks.
Treasury Auction Boosts Market
The Treasury's auction of two-year notes brought an upside surprise which should alleviate fears of a lack of demand for U.S. paper.
Credit Markets Point to Upturn
The credit market, a reliable indicator of equity direction, suggests we will break out of the SPX's trading range to the upside.
The market seems to be saying that a 30% move up from the lows is ahead of the real economy and the market needs to allow the economy to catch up.
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