Michael Shulman

Capitalize on the Credit Crisis

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As summer is officially coming to a close, "fall" seems a particularly apropos name for this season, given the Dow's (DJI) 504-point plummet.

I know the markets are bad when my mother-in-law, who generally couldn't care less what I have to say, is asking for my opinion about what's going on. But today's financial tumult is exactly what I have been saying would happen for months. The financials are dropping one-by-one, like the acorns falling to the ground outside of my window.

And the plummeting stocks have bonked more than a few investors and government officials on the head, leaving nothing but headaches and confusion.

Just how did we get here? And, more importantly, are there more profits in store for put-option buyers ChangeWave Shorts like my subscribers who are sitting pretty when the banks -- and other companies they've bet against -- are blowing up?

THE BEGINNING OF THE END

Quite simply, financial juggernaut Lehman Bros. (LEH), the oldest U.S. investment bank, belly-flopped.

This is significant for a lot of reasons, not the least of which that Lehman's failure reduced the number of major U.S. investment banks from five at the beginning of the year, to just three.

Then, Merrill Lynch (MER), the largest retail broker and investment bank, agreed to Bank of America's (BAC) takeover offer for $29 a share, which equates to about $44 billion. MER closed today just above $17 a share today, a 77% drop from the stock's value this time last year.

Looming in the future -- rather, darkening the horizon -- is that financial behemoth American Insurance Group (AIG) was informed that its credit quality will get downgraded. Investors now see that the ailing firm will have to sell many, if not most, of its assets … or be bought or go bankrupt.

I think an offer could even come overnight, but in the meantime, the Fed threw AIG a $40 billion line of credit, as private equity firms are hemming and hawing about what, if any, parts of AIG they might want.

The Treasury and Federal Reserve are showing some tough love, though, and said they won't bail anyone else out. They did, however, jawbone all weekend and added liquidity by expanding the loan availability through traditional mechanisms.

Specifically, these bodies changed regulations so that investment banks that are part of commercial banks can access the Fed discount window and Fed loans.

Will it be enough?