The 10 Dumbest Analyst Calls of 2008
Michael Shulman, January 1, 2009
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“In terms of nominal GDP, I see it being around 1% for a long time, five years for sure ... if it took the corporate sector five years to recover from the bursting of the dot-com bubble, to suggest that it would take five years for consumers to recover from this seems like a very conservative call.”
Last but not least is Stephanie Pomboy, who was conveniently interviewed for the first time in more than three years in Barron's this week. She is a macro analyst who founded and runs MacroMavens.
Pomboy has called the structural problems in housing, consumer credit, the dollar and so on going back to 2002. She sees the deleveraging of the consumer and the economy as perhaps a decade-long affair and the government having a continuing and outsized role in financial markets and the economy in general. Stephanie is more bearish than I am -- perhaps 10% plus unemployment, 1% GDP growth (on average) for quite a while -- and a shift from paper to hard assets.
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