When asked about the stock market, the professional money managers on TV repeat the same old mantra: "Stay fully invested. When the market goes bear, buy more. When the market goes bull, rebalance your portfolio at year-end."

This concept is simply BS. Not just because if you followed it you would have zero investment gains since 1998. And not because those money managers or stock brokers don't get paid on your cash balances -- those fees or spreads go to the house.

It's bull because it does not adequately reflect the risk of owning stocks versus owning cash, bonds or short exchange-traded funds (ETFs) during periods of contracting economic growth.
Stocks are valued on an estimate of future earnings times a multiple of those earnings.

Cyclical stocks get a lower multiple because their earnings are cyclical. Secular growth stocks get a higher multiple because their future earnings are growth at a multiple to overall GDP growth.