Nasdaq May Be In For a Tumble
by Sam Collins 07/01/09The second quarter of 2009 was one of the best quarters ever for stocks, as every major index closed with double-digit gains. But the last day of the quarter ended on a sour note, as weak consumer confidence numbers had investors heading for the exits.
The Conference Board released the consumer confidence for June, which showed a drop to 49.3 from 54.8 in May. Forecasts had indicated that confidence had returned, but the new numbers show otherwise.
Before the opening, the S&P/Case-Shiller index showed a small decline in home prices, and that had little impact on the market. But the consumer confidence numbers had a real impact. Sellers hit the tape almost immediately after the numbers were released.
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Caterpillar (CAT) fell 4.9% as a direct result of the consumer confidence numbers. And Deere & Co. (DE) lost 5.2%, announcing that nearly 800 salaried workers have accepted buyout offers, which will cost DE about twice as much as first projected.
At the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) was down 82 points to 8,447, the S&P 500 (SPX) lost 8 points to 919, and the Nasdaq (NASD) fell 9 points to 1,835.
The NYSE traded 1.3 billion shares, and Nasdaq traded 675 million shares. On both exchanges decliners led advancers by about 5-to-3.
August crude oil fell $1.60 to $69.89 a barrel, and the Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE) fell 29 cents to $48.05.
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The charts are bullish for both indices, and it looks like they could reach my immediate target.
Thursday's dramatic acceleration, coupled with a 'key reversal day' on Monday, leads me to the conclusion that the markets will continue to rise.
Our internal indicators are now telling us that stocks are still a good value at this level.
The recent pullback in the First Trust ISE-Revere Natural Gas Index Fund (FCG) could offer a good opportunity to accumulate shares.
Unless the S&P 500 closes below 1,020, investors should be buying into this decline.
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