All Eyes on Oracle (ORCL)
by Houghton and Atkeson 03/18/09
Oracle (ORCL) reports earnings today after the close. The consensus estimate is 32 cents per share, and $5.45 billion for EPS and revenues, respectively.
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Ahead of earnings, options are running two-times normal volume, with more than 108,000 contracts trading so far. Market participants appear to be buying volatility with a bullish stance. 85,000 calls have traded and 23,000 puts -- 43,000 ORCL April 16 Calls (ORQDQ) have traded with more than 90% on the offer.
Oracle has bounced 15% along with the market from a March 9 low and a 52-week low of $13.80 to $16. All eyes are on what the company has to say about corporate tech spending.
Estimates have come down, but are they low enough?
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Looking into June, the market should begin refocusing on upcoming earnings reports for evidence the economy is gaining momentum.
Watching the Treasury's Actions
In the short-term, the government's bond auction is likely to be a key driver of stocks.
Treasury Auction Boosts Market
The Treasury's auction of two-year notes brought an upside surprise which should alleviate fears of a lack of demand for U.S. paper.
Credit Markets Point to Upturn
The credit market, a reliable indicator of equity direction, suggests we will break out of the SPX's trading range to the upside.
The market seems to be saying that a 30% move up from the lows is ahead of the real economy and the market needs to allow the economy to catch up.
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