A Doubler Over the Next Six Months?
by Houghton and Atkeson 12/16/08
Central European Media Enterprises (CETV) operates commercial television channels in Central and Eastern Europe in places like Croatia, the Czech Republic, Romania, Slovenia and the Ukraine.
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The investment theme has been: As these countries thaw out from Russian control, their television markets will look, feel and act more like the television market in the United States. One of the problems the company faces, however, is $25 per share of long-term debt. The stock is currently trading at about $21.70.
With the Fed rate reduction today, option investors have purchased CETV July 40 Calls (EVUGH) more than 4,000 times. Not only is the volume unusually large (11-times usual volume), these options would require that the stock appreciate about 100% during the next six months to be in-the-money.
The current ask price for these options is $1.80, so this trade appears to be more than just a lottery ticket.
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