Line 'Em Up – Merrill Lynch (MER)
by Houghton and Atkeson 09/10/08First Bear Stearns blew up. Lehman Brothers (LEH) is unraveling in front of us now. Now it looks like Merrill Lynch (MER) is now on the target list.
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Option investors have aggressively bought MER September, October and January puts from the $15 to $25 strike prices more than 50,000 times today.
This apparently aggressive directional option trading is helping push MER shares more than 8% lower as of this writing. It looks like there is a line forming behind the woodshed for financials to receive their beatings.
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Looking into June, the market should begin refocusing on upcoming earnings reports for evidence the economy is gaining momentum.
Watching the Treasury's Actions
In the short-term, the government's bond auction is likely to be a key driver of stocks.
Treasury Auction Boosts Market
The Treasury's auction of two-year notes brought an upside surprise which should alleviate fears of a lack of demand for U.S. paper.
Credit Markets Point to Upturn
The credit market, a reliable indicator of equity direction, suggests we will break out of the SPX's trading range to the upside.
The market seems to be saying that a 30% move up from the lows is ahead of the real economy and the market needs to allow the economy to catch up.
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