Jim Woods

Holidays Won't Revive Consumers

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Saving more money (up seven points to 33%), reduced income (up seven points to 33%) and reducing debt (up two points to 31%) were cited as the dominant reasons.

Weak Outlook Hits All Major Spending Categories

Spending is down for all consumer categories this holiday season compared with the previous holiday season (November 2007 survey). And, in nearly all instances, spending is down compared with just six weeks ago (September 2008).

Spending on restaurants/everyday entertainment looks particularly weak -- down a net 39 points from a year ago to a new all-time low. Similarly, consumer durable goods are now registering a new all-time low.

Consumer electronics remains one of the weakest spending categories. This is a big change from past holiday seasons, as a surge in the sector normally occurs at this time of year. Only 19% said they'll spend more on consumer electronics during the next 90 days, compared to 43% who said less -- a net 40 points worse than one year ago.

Double Whammy for Best Buy

Our survey findings point to a particularly weak holiday season for Best Buy (BBY). Only 44% said they'll shop there during the next 90 days -- down seven points from a year ago, and a three-point decline from September.