Don't Be a Turkey -- Short This Stock
Michael Shulman, November 11, 2009
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I love to shop at Whole Foods Market (WFMI) due to the superior food and even better service compared to other grocery stores in my area. But this Thanksgiving, I'll be getting my turkey, potatoes, cranberries, stuffing, dessert, etc., at one of those other grocery stores. Why? Because we're in a recession, and Whole Foods is simply too damn expensive.
I really like the joint, but sushi at the take-out place is cheaper, I now make my own egg salad (well, OK, my wife actually makes it, but I do boil the eggs), and so on. I, like most Americans, am looking for ways to scale back spending. OK, I will go to Whole Foods for tofu. I mean, who makes their own sesame tofu?
But that is not a large enough market to sustain a stock price with a P/E of 40 based on the past quarter's earnings. Yes, I know you don't short on valuation, but keep in mind that when people start making money again, they are not going to forget about Trader Joe's Three Buck Chuck (a great cheap wine) and other less expensive items they've discovered during their time away from Whole Foods.
The turkey is not ready, and neither is WFMI's chart, but it will soon be time to short this stock. Look at longer-term put options so this story has a chance to play out in the stock's price over the next quarter or two.
And if you don't believe we're still in a recession, well, then you better keep reading.
Next: 10 Reasons the Economy Will NOT Recover in 2010
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